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business analytic-data and decision assignment

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business analytic-data and decision assignment

Assignment 2

 

Use data named after your student ID.  

 

 

Download your individual data from IVLE—Workbin—HW2—Data. Your data consists of 4 columns, recording time, sales, investment gains and profits of a company every quarter. The company Angel Textile is a diverse, innovative provider  of  global  textile  solutions  and  distinguished  fabric  brands  to

automotive, apparel, interior furnishing and industrial markets worldwide.

 

 

Question 1. Consider the quarterly sales of Angel Textile. Like many others in the textile industry, Angel Textile faces several challenges. Seasonality is an

issue.    Analyst YC concluded the seasonal indices of the sales should be:

 

Q1 1.2 Q2 0.5 Q3 0.6

 

  1. a. Find the missing seasonal index for quarter 4. Interpret the meaning of the seasonal indice
  2. b. Draw time series plot and describe the empirical characteristics of the sales data. Select an appropriate model based on the visual analysis. Write down the fitted mode Interpret the meaning of each coefficient.
  3. Consider your fitted model. Compute the sale forecast for the coming quarter, i.e. time t = 101. Report the 95% interval forecast for the coming quarter. Interpret your forecast result.

 

 

Question 2.

Over years, Angel Textile made profit in many forms of investing in real estate, bonds, etc. Consider the quarterly investment gains of Angel Textile.

  1. a. Use single exponential smoothing method to forecast the profits. Take the average of the first 8 observations as the initial forecast and start your forecast for time t = 9,…,100. Report the optimal smoothing parameter and the forecast accuracy of MAP Explain the meaning of the smoothing parameter.
  2. b. Use either Holt or Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method to forecast the profits. Use the first 8 observations to initial the forecast. Report the value of the optimal smoothing parameters and compute the forecast accuracy of MAPE for time t = 9,…,100. Explain the meaning of the smoothing parameter
  3. Compare the two forecast methods. Which one is better and why?

 

 

Question 3. Consider the quarterly profits of Angel Textile.

  1. a. Is the data stationary? Justify your answer using the ADF tes
  2. b. Select an appropriate AR/MA/ARMA type mode Explain the motivation of your selection using sample ACF and PACF plots. Write down your fitted

 

model.

  1. Is your model adequate? Justify your answer using the Ljung-Box Q(24)

test.

 

 

 

 

 

Note:

  1. 1. Write down your student ID in the footnote of each of your answer shee Fill out the following table that summarizes your results and place it on the first page of your answer sheets.

 

 

Your student ID
Q1. Forecast model
Point forecast
Interval forecast
Q2. Smoothing  parameter  ofSES
Smoothing parameters ofHW
MAPE of both models
Q3. Is data stationary?
AR/MA/ARMA model:
Is model adequate?

 

 

  1. 2. Both softcopy and hardcopy are required!

 

 

Format: follow the guidance in IVLE.

Don’t forget to write down your student ID, name and tutorial group on the hard copy!

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